We had the baby boom, then the baby bust - now for the baby bounce
2005-06 State of the Regions report
7 November 2005
First there was the baby "boom" (1935-61). Then there was the baby "bust" (1961 onwards). Are we now facing the baby "bounce"? A new report suggests the baby bust may be over with nearly all states showing an upward trend in the proportion of the population aged 0 to 1 for the first time since 1996.
The 2005-06 State of the Regions report, released today (Monday 7 November), shows that nearly all states experienced their lowest share of those aged less than one year old in 2003. The trend since 1996 has been consistently downwards until 2003. But in 2004, the trend changed and the proportion of the population in this age bracket began to turn upward.
Prepared for ALGA by National Economics and sponsored by Jardine Lloyd Thompson, State of the Regions report provides a comprehensive stock-take of the economic and social well-being of Australia's 64 regions and their prospects for economic development and employment growth.
Report co-author, Dr Ian Manning, said that while it "may seem premature to say the momentum has swung, there is no denying the fact that over the past decade, this is the first time such a distinct upward trend has appeared".
Top ten baby bounce regions
| Region | % pop less than 1 in 2003 | % pop less than 1 in 2004 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| WA Pilbara-Kimberly | 1.58 | 1.73 | 0.16 |
| WA Peel-South West | 1.10 | 1.18 | 0.08 |
| QLD West Moreton | 1.33 | 1.41 | 0.08 |
| WA Perth Central | 1.08 | 1.15 | 0.07 |
| QLD North West | 1.63 | 1.69 | 0.06 |
| NSW South-East | 1.06 | 1.12 | 0.06 |
| WA Perth Outer S'th | 1.20 | 1.26 | 0.06 |
| SA Murraylands | 1.14 | 1.19 | 0.06 |
| NSW Murray | 1.14 | 1.20 | 0.06 |
| ACT | 1.24 | 1.30 | 0.05 |
"Of Australia's 64 regions, only 18 experienced a decrease of 0 to 1 year olds as a proportion of their population in 2003-04. This differs significantly to the results from 1996 to 2004 where no less than 43 regions experienced a decrease.
"The top ten regions that have bounced most significantly are from a range of states. These regions may be attractive to young families, particularly immigrants who are searching for affordable housing in liveable regions and which have access to reasonably strong labour markets.
"The majority, however, are below the national average and as such have caught up slightly. Both the experience over the past 12 months and the past decade show that there is a convergence to the national average. Those that are below the national average have tended to increase towards the average while those above the average had tended to decrease.
"As fertility rates have fallen across Australia, the baby boomer bubble has dominated the population distribution. Metropolitan regions have been the only regions to grow their young population at the same pace as the rest of the population. The regions that haven't been able to do this have suffered the effects of an ageing population and the social change that has seen the average number of children women are likely to bear fall significantly," Dr Manning said.
| State | 1996 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.26 |
| NSW | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| VIC | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.25 |
| QLD | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| SA | 1.28 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| WA | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.27 |
| TAS | 1.42 | 1.31 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| ACT | 1.43 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| NT | 1.92 | 1.86 | 1.84 | 1.87 | 1.85 |
The State of the Regions report can be accessed by journalists online via the ALGA website www.alga.asn.au. Please call Rohan Greenland on (0412) 859 434 to access a username and password. Baby bounce information and statistics can be found in Chapter 7: Baby bounce and fertility in Australia over the last decade pp136-148.
- Contact:
- Dr Ian Manning, Deputy Director, National Economics - 03 9488 8444 / 0439 661 538
- Cr Paul Bell AM, ALGA President - 0418 791 596
- Rohan Greenland, ALGA Public Affairs - 0412 85 9434 / 02 6122 9434
