Discussion paper
An older Australia: Identifying areas for local government action
Demographic change
Australia's population will age substantially - and surprisingly quickly - over the coming decades. This is a result of fertility remaining at low levels over a long period, increasing life expectancy, and the effect of the 'baby boomer' cohort moving through older age groups.
Australia
These trends have contributed to an increase in the number of people aged over 65 years. It is expected that within Australia the number of people aged over 65 will grow from 2.5 million as at June 2002, to 7.1 million by 20512.
Figure 1: Age structure of the projected population, Australia
Source: Population Projections, Australia, 2002 to 2101 (ABS Cat. no. 3222.0)
These trends have also contributed to the growing proportion of older people within the total population. It is expected that the proportion of people over 65 years will grow from 13% as at June 2002, to one quarter of the population by 2051. The proportion of people over 85 years is expected to grow from 1.4% as at June 2002, to around 6% by 2051. In addition, it is expected that the proportion of the population aged between 15-64 years (labour force age) will fall from 67% as at June 2002, to around 59% by 2051.
| Resident population | 2002 | 2021 | 2051 | 2101 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males, 65 years and over | 1076.7 | 2076.1 | 3362.3 | 3638.8 |
| Females, 65 years and over | 1358.9 | 2367.3 | 3793.9 | 3983.5 |
| Males, 85 years and over | 81.9 | 218.4 | 657.3 | 784.6 |
| Females, 85 years and over | 183.3 | 357.8 | 923.9 | 1036.1 |
Source: Population projections, Australia, 2002-2102 (ABS Cat No. 3222.0)
| Resident population | 2002 | 2021 | 2051 | 2101 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65 years and over | 12.5 % | 19.0 % | 27.1 % | 28.9 % |
| 85 years and over | 1.4 % | 2.5 % | 6.0 % | 6.9 % |
Source: Population projections, Australia, 2002-2102 (ABS Cat No. 3222.0)
State and territories
The age profile of each state and territory varies, as a result of past differences in fertility, mortality and migration trends. However, it is expected that all State and Territory populations will continue ageing over the coming decades. Tasmania's population is expected to age most rapidly, overtaking South Australia as the 'oldest state' by 2021. In contrast, the Northern Territory which has the youngest population is expected to keep the lowest proportion of the population over 65 years.
| State/territory | 2002 | 2021 | 2051 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 13.2 | 19.0 | 26.9 |
| Victoria | 13.1 | 19.1 | 27.3 |
| Queensland | 11.8 | 18.5 | 26.8 |
| South Australia | 14.8 | 22.2 | 31.1 |
| Western Australia | 11.2 | 18.4 | 26.9 |
| Tasmania | 14.0 | 23.4 | 33.8 |
| Northern Territory | 3.9 | 8.1 | 12.1 |
| Australian Capital Territory | 8.8 | 16.4 | 23.5 |
Source: Population projections, Australia, 2002-2101(ABS Cat No.3222.0).
Local government areas (LGAs)3
Although Tasmania is expected to be the state with the oldest population, it is projected that older populations will continue to be situated in LGAs along the east coast of Australia, particularly in Queensland. In 2019, the LGA with the oldest population in Australia is expected to be Bribie Island, with approximately 37% of its residents aged 65 years and over.
In total, it is expected that by 2019, 170 LGAs will have one-quarter or more of the population aged 65 years and over.
| Local government area | State | Regionb | 1999 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total for Australia | 12.2 | 17.6 | ||
| Bribie Island | Queensland | C | 28.2 | 36.8 |
| Bilinga | Queensland | C | 28.6 | 35.2 |
| Victor Harbor | South Australia | C | 29.0 | 33.3 |
| Runaway Bay | Queensland | C | 20.2 | 32.3 |
| Paradise Point | Queensland | C | 24.8 | 32.3 |
| Mornington Peninsula South | Victoria | C | 16.5 | 32.0 |
| Strathbogie | Victoria | I | 20.3 | 31.9 |
| Mannum | South Australia | I | 20.2 | 31.8 |
| Hollywell | Queensland | C | 20.4 | 30.8 |
| Barraba | New South Wales | I | 21.5 | 30.6 |
| Redcliffe Scarborough | Queensland | C | 21.9 | 30.4 |
| Hindmarsh | Victoria | I | 21.6 | 30.3 |
| Brighton | South Australia | C/M | 20.1 | 30.3 |
| Bass Coast Balance | Victoria | C | 21.9 | 30.2 |
| Sandgate | Queensland | C/M | 24.6 | 30.1 |
| Great Lakes | New South Wales | C | 24.8 | 30.1 |
| Fisher | ACT | M | 12.6 | 30.1 |
| Upper Mount Gravatt | Queensland | M | 20.5 | 30.1 |
a Uses 1996 SLA boundaries and excludes LGAs with fewer than 1000 people.
b 'C'=coastal; 'I'=inland; and 'M'=metropolitan.
Source: Population Projections, Statistical Local Areas, 1999-2019 (Cat No. 3220.0)
2All figures are series B projections.
3Local government areas (LGAs) are geographical units which are used to collect and disseminate statistics. In non-census years, LGAs are the smallest unit of classification in the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC). In 2000, Australia had 1331 LGAs.
