Planning for an ageing community

12 April 2005

Section B: Population ageing

Awareness

Australia, like most OECD countries, has an ageing population. Since 1901, the proportion of Australians aged 65 years and over has tripled. It is projected that this growth will continue over the coming decades and by 2051, one quarter of the population will be aged 65 years and over.

Table 4: Australians aged 65 years and over

Year	Number	Percentage
1901	151,000.00	4
2002	2,500,000.00	13
2051	7,200,000.00	27

Figure 1: Level of understanding of population ageing issues by respondents

Impact on municipalities

There are wide variations in the rate of population ageing across and within Australia’s states and territories. It is projected that older populations will continue to be concentrated in local government areas that are located along the east coast of Australia, particularly in Queensland.

By 2019, the local government area with the oldest population in Australia is expected to be Bribie Island, Queensland. Around 37% of its residents are expected to be aged 65 years and over. This is an increase of 9% from current levels, and almost 20% higher than the projected national average. Bilinga in Queensland will maintain its place as the nation’s second oldest local government area with 35% of residents in this age cohort by 2019. Victor Harbour in South Australia will have 33% of its population aged 65 and above, making it the third oldest local government area.

Table 5: Projected 'oldest' LGA(a) populations in Australia in 2019

Local government area	State	Region (b)	2019 (% aged 65 years and over)
Total - Australia			17.6
Bribie Island	Qld	C	36.8
Bilinga	Qld	C	35.2
Victor Harbor	SA	C	33.3
Runaway Bay	Qld	C	32.3
Paradise Point	Qld	C	32.3
Mornington Peninsula South	Vic	C	32
Strathbogie	Vic	I	31.9
Mannum	SA	I	31.8
Hollywell	Qld	C	30.8
Barraba	NSW	I	30.6
Redcliffe Scarborough	Qld	C	30.4
Hindmarsh	Vic	I	30.3
Brighton	SA	C/M	30.3
Bass Coast Balance	Vic	C	30.2
Sandgate	Qld	C/M	30.1
Great Lakes	NSW	C	30.1
Fisher	ACT	M	30.1
Upper Mount Gravatt	Qld	M	30.1

As table six shows, 93% of councils responding to the survey believe that population ageing will have an ‘impact’ on their municipality. Almost 28% of councils described the likely impact of population ageing on their municipality as severe, 65% as moderate and only 5% as minor.

Table 6: Impact of population ageing on municipalities

Impact severe	Number of responses 66	% of responses 28.45
Moderate	150	64.66
Minor	13	5.6
Nil	0	0

The majority of councils (nearly 80%) expect the impact of population ageing to occur from now through to 2019, with the breakdown 38% from now to 2009 and 40% from 2010 to 2019. However, important to note is that 10% of councils were uncertain when the impact of population ageing would occur in their municipality.

Figure 2: When the impact of population ageing will occur in municipalities

Impact on service delivery

Population ageing represents important opportunities for local government, as older people make an enormous contribution to the Australian community. But population ageing also has a range of impacts, which will present challenges for local government.

Overall, 43.10% of local councils believe the likely impact on the delivery of home and community services will be severe, closely followed by transport services (41.38%). Interestingly, 19.83% of councils believe the likely impact on the delivery of housing:

Severe for

• home and community care
• transport
• residential aged care

Moderate for

• housing
• health and wellbeing
• recreation and leisure

Minor for

• education and learning

Table 7: Impact of population ageing on the delivery of local council services

Impact	Residential	HACC	Transport	Housing	Health	Recreation	Education
Severe	31.03	43.1	41.38	20.69	25.86	16.38	6.03
Moderate	28.88	33.62	30.6	39.66	54.74	62.93	47.41
Minor	12.07	10.34	12.93	11.21	12.07	16.81	30.17
Nil	18.53	8.62	12.07	19.83	3.02	2.16	9.48
Uncertain	9.48	4.31	3.02	8.62	4.31	1.72	6.9